Oh man, we’re almost there. Real NFL action is almost happening. I used to scoff at all the ridiculous media hype and buildup, but really, what else is there to do? What am I going to do… watch baseball? No thanks.
In just a few days, we will watch as elite college players get picked early and finally land the payday contract that they’ve deserved. We’ll watch as lesser-known players surprise everyone and get picked earlier than expected. We’ll also take part in one of the best examples of Schadenfruede in the NFL, and watch as talented players slide and slide and slide down into later rounds. Often the player even has a TV camera in his face broadcasting live images of his dumbfounded expressions with each successive pick of, “anyone-but-him.” I’m not going to tell you that this isn’t sometimes pleasurable. Every year, there are a few loudmouths that we all love to see crash and burn. Yeah, I’m looking right at you, Johnny Manziel, and I’m rooting for you to fall all the way to Oakland in the third round. Man I would love to see him stuck all the way behind the powerhouse trio of Schaub/McGloin/undrafted free agent. Before I come off as too much of a jerk though, most of the draft slides aren’t fun. While I’m not exactly throwing a pity party, it is a little sad to see some of the players slide due to college injuries, especially when those injuries came so close to the end of their college careers. That’s a little like driving a U-Haul truck from Seattle to Tucson without any problems, and then tearing up the side of the truck by turning too tightly into the rental return parking lot. Yup, I did that.
When these injured players slide down the draft chart and eventually land somewhere, there is sometimes a silver lining. By design, the earliest picks go to the worst teams. Typically, these bad teams are drafting to fill immediate roster holes, and they seem to expect that one college player can be plugged right in and lead the team to instant success. Of course it’s never this easy, but try telling that to the Cleveland Browns.
But, when a player slides due to a college injury, they sometimes find a great home. The team that drafts them has two admirable traits. First, they don’t have an immediate roster hole to fill with an expected starter. Second, and closely related, they usually have the patience to allow that college player to fully heal before pushing them onto the field. The best example of that right now is in San Francisco. During last year’s draft, the 49ers’ took severely-injured running back Marcus Lattimore at the very end of the fourth round. Lattimore looked great at South Carolina, but in October of 2012 he completely shredded his knee, Willis McGahee-style. Had it not been for that injury, most people thought Lattimore would’ve been the first running back chosen in that draft. In many ways, Lattimore is a perfect fit in San Francisco. The team found a low cost bargain with huge upside potential, and Lattimore found a team that would allow him more than enough time to heal and get up to speed. Or at least, that’s the general win-win take that I often see presented.
Before we go feeling all warm and fuzzy inside like we just had a mug of hot chocolate featuring equal parts of miniature marshmallows and Baileys, there’s something we should look at there. Yes, the Lattimore and San Farncisco fit is a good one. Same as QB Matt Barkley going to Philadelphia in the fourth round of the same draft. Same good fit as Eddie Lacy dropping to Green Bay at the tail end of the second round, again, in that 2013 draft. But make no mistake about it, Lattimore is still on extremely thin ice, and it’s short-sighted not to admit that.
Lattimore was a low cost gamble for San Francisco. But, in the perverse world of NFL economics, that means that the team might be quick to throw in the towel and release him outright if they don’t see results soon, possibly even this year. In defiance of many economic principles, teams seem reluctant to throw in the towel on a player who they have either spent a lot of money on or drafted in the first round. Even worse is when the team has traded up to draft early and blown a lot of money. Best example… wait, I can’t even say that… there are so many good ones. Mark Sanchez comes to mind. Sanchez was mostly a train wreck for the New York Jets, but they kept him on for five seasons and somewhere north of $50 million, simply because they had invested so much in him. The Jets even gave Sanchez a lucrative contract extension that surprised everyone. My favorite bust, JaMarcus Russell, squeezed three seasons and at least $32 million out of the Raiders before they had had enough and admitted defeat. Even the relatively cheap Blaine Gabbert was given three seasons of suckitude before the Jaguars decided to rule him a bust and cut him loose.
I know that it seems strange to think that a low-cost, low-pick player would have a shorter shelf life than those high profile busts, but that just seems to be the way of the NFL. It’s rare to see owners and managers admit to their own mistakes, and that’s exactly what they’re doing when they finally release these high profile players. Meanwhile, nobody will notice or care if those teams release a few lower profile players. The general attitude is that if you gambled on a high-risk player, such as Lattimore, there’s no shame if it doesn’t work out and you move on. So after the draft, when you read about these great scenarios where the injured player falls to the right team, keep in mind that that story is far from over. The meter is running on those players, no matter how good the fit and how patient the team. This is still the NFL, and there’s no charity there. I’ll try to follow up on some of those scenarios and report on how they unfold.
Update: May 6th, 2014
That post wasn’t even up for 24 hours before I saw something worth adding. The San Jose Mercury News wrote a piece about Marcus Lattimore recently, and here’s an excerpt from that article:
“Lattimore concedes that he still lacks the first-step burst, the explosiveness through the hole, that once helped him rush for 1,197 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns as a freshman at South Carolina.”
Again, I’m not saying that Lattimore won’t make a comeback. I’m even rooting for him, so I’m not trying to sound heartless here. All I’m saying is that this story isn’t over, and we shouldn’t rush to the conclusion that Lattimore found the exact right team and that everyone is happy and that’s the end…. cue the rainbows and gumdrop showers.
