Have you ever felt like a character from a Greek myth? For November and December of 2013, I did. I was that character that saw something that nobody else did, and I shouted myself hoarse trying to convince everyone, all in vain. Which guy was that? I don’t think it was the same one who flew too close so the sun on wings of pastrami. It was frustrating not to have a mouthpiece where I could try to get my argument out to a larger audience, and it was a lot of the motivation for me to build Questionable To Start. I saw a situation in which traditional sports reporting was absolutely failing, and there was nothing I could do about it. Instead, I resigned myself to sending an insane volume of argumentative emails to my friends and family. Sorry about that everyone. It’s too late to be timely, but it’s a good example of the goals and methods of Questionable To Start, so I’m putting this information out there anyway.
November 4th, 2013. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was driven to the turf and landed on his left (non-throwing) shoulder in a week 9 Monday Night Football game against the Bears. The following day, word was out that Rodgers had fractured his collarbone. Cue the insanity. Everyone immediately starting hopping on the optimism bandwagon as to how quickly he could return. Three weeks was the widely reported consensus. ESPN’s Adam Schefter might’ve been the first to throw that estimate out there, and it’s difficult to tell if others were simply following his lead or if they had their own resources. FOX Sports’ Mike Garafolo was the most conservative, stating that his sources put it at a four to six week return timeline, but even in the same Tweet, Garafolo mentions a possible return for the Thanksgiving game, which would be in less than four weeks. Others agreed on the general four to six week timeline, but then went on to say that Rodgers injury didn’t seem as severe, as it didn’t sound like a “full break.” One week later, Green Bay Coach Mike McCarthy said that Rodgers was, “a couple weeks away.”
Now of course, there are all sorts of problems with statistical injury comparison. I outlined those here, and freely admit that it is far from perfect. But I felt like everyone was ignoring the obvious comparison. In week 7 of 2010, Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo was driven to the turf and fractured his left, non-throwing, collarbone. When the details of Romo’s injury came out, reporters mostly stuck to estimates of six to eight weeks. NFL Network said about six weeks, ESPN said about eight weeks, and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones put it at, “six to eight weeks.” Everyone seemed to mostly agree on that timeline. After three weeks, Romo was seen without his arm in a sling, and it was reported that he was on, “the fast track,” to recovery, whatever that means. Four weeks after the injury, an anonymous source said that Romo was still about three weeks from returning, which, had that been true, would’ve made for a seven week recovery. Five weeks after the injury, Romo is spotted doing some, “light throwing.” Then there’s an odd little media blackout where no real news comes along. At the seven week mark, it’s finally reported that Romo is behind schedule, and, days later, he is placed on Injured Reserve, ending his season. The final stats are that Romo missed eight weeks, then went onto IR for the final two weeks, for a total of ten weeks missed. Romo’s recovery clearly took a bad turn, but there are still some lessons we can take from it. Why was there such a difference between the expected rehabs between Romo and Rodgers? Are we to believe that Rodgers’ injury was only half as severe as Romo’s? Even the reporters that did mention Romo as a precedent when discussing Rodgers’ injury typically just gave it one sentence and moved on. Nobody seemed to want to use Romo’s timeline as a yardstick to measure Rodgers’ possible recovery. Why was nobody interested in comparing the two?
As it turned out, the Romo comparison would’ve been more accurate than the typical three week estimate that everybody put on Rodgers. Rodgers didn’t have the same sort of setback that Romo did, but his timeline still had some similarities. Aaron Rodgers ended up missing seven weeks. His first game back was week 17, a full eight weeks after his injury. This return matches up very closely to the original estimate… for Tony Romo. Also, Rodgers’ return appeared to occur roughly the same time that Romo would’ve returned were it not for Romo’s setback.
Rather than looking at historical evidence though, everyone in the sports world seemed to love focusing on the minutia of the day-to-day reporting. They focused on how Aaron Rodgers said that he was a quick healer, but never pointed out that perhaps this quality, already dubious, didn’t apply to things such as waiting for bones to mend. On November 12th, eight days after the injury, Aaron Rodgers said on his weekly radio show that he was feeling better than he had up to that point. He also said that he wanted to play, and sort of hinted that he might be back to start in week 12 or 13. The more interesting part of the interview seemed to get glossed over. In it, Rodgers said:
“Small victories to me have been being able to sleep through an entire night, which I finally can; being able to put a shirt over my head, which I can now; putting socks on. Yes, I can put them on without being in an extreme amount of pain.”
At this point, Rodgers was only eight days into his recovery. But here he was admitting that his big progressions so far were that he could now sleep and put on a shirt. Yes, he can put on socks, but the fact that he says, “without being in extreme pain,” obviously indicates that he was still in some amount of pain putting on socks. This might all be normal to the recovery process for this injury, but there’s no logical way to read it as optimism. But that’s what the press did. For the most part, the media take-away from this interview was, “Rodgers hoping to start in week 12!” You can read parts of this interview here and here. It’s absolutely insane to think that someone who cannot put his socks on without being in pain is anywhere close to playing sports at a professional level! Granted, I have never played quarterback, or even organized football. But I’m pretty sure that it is much more difficult than putting on your socks.
The following weeks all unfolded with a similar craziness. There were daily reports about what Rodgers was or wasn’t doing and Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy was constantly bombarded with questions about return timeline estimates. McCarthy brought some of that upon himself with his usual tight-lipped responses, as he would typically wait until maybe two or three days before a game to admit that it was doubtful Rodgers would suit up. This little game went on all the way up until week 17, when Rodgers started the December 29th game.
Meanwhile, as I mentioned, I was screaming myself hoarse. In my opinion, the initial three week tag was ludicrous, and every word of reporting was just wasted breath and ink. A reasonable person should’ve been able to look at the situation and understand that there wasn’t really much point in thinking day-to-day until at least mid-December, which would be five or six weeks into the recovery timeline. It does not matter what Aaron Rodgers says, what matters is how long it typically takes human bones to mend to the point that they’re no longer at risk of a re-fracture.
This was the case that led me to build my injury database. I wanted to be able to easily reference other similar injuries and see if I could find some patterns. Yes, again, there are all sorts of problems with this, and I admit to them all. Since compiling the data though, I can point out that the absolute earliest anyone has recently come back from a broken collarbone was when WR Marques Colston missed only two games in 2011. I can tell you that he had a metal plate attached to the bone to cover the fracture, something that neither Romo nor Rodgers had. I can also point out that a WR does not need the same strength or range of motion that a QB does. A WR needs to be able to raise his arms, but a QB obviously needs to be able to throw with strength and precision, and the throwing motion of a QB carries over to the non-throwing shoulder as well. I can also tell you that the original estimates for Colston were that he would miss about four weeks, a full week more than people somehow thought Rodgers would miss. Even when Colston completed his amazingly early return, he was on a limited snap count and was eased back into the game.
There are not a ton of collarbone injuries to base this on, but there’s enough to tell that the three week estimate was off. WR Danny Amendola missed four weeks with a broken collarbone in 2012. QB Matt Leinart has missed a total of 17 weeks with two different fractures of his collarbone, albeit the much more severe throwing side. RB Ryan Matthews had similarly bad luck, breaking his collarbone to start and end the 2012 season, missing five games the first time (including preseason) and landing on Injured Reserve for the final two games of the season. DB Antoine Winfield spent the last seven games of the 2011 season on Injured Reserve with a broken collarbone, while DB Charles Woodson was out ten games with the same injury in 2012. So, given all this data, why would anyone put a three week tag on Aaron Rodgers? I’m still waiting for the answer.
