My first thought when I heard Mayo’s news was, “Well, that doesn’t bode well for Jimmy Graham.” It’s not that there’s any direct connection there, so I’ll explain. Part of the recent decline of Jerod Mayo is his patellar tendon rupture from Week 6 of 2014. This is a devastating injury, and Mayo was one of the few success stories in recent memory. While he did not return as the stud he once was, he was at least a serviceable rotational player, which is more than can be said about almost everyone else who has suffered the same injury. So now, the best-case-scenario comp for Jimmy Graham’s potential recovery is retiring due in part to declining health.

Like I said, the two players aren’t directly connected. Mayo’s declining health does not necessarily mean that Graham will follow suit. Mayo also suffered a torn pectoral to close out this season, an injury that ended his 2013 season as well, and this is likely a big part of his decision to retire. But, even when healthy this season, Mayo was not the player he once was. This all leads me to question whether we’ll see Jimmy Graham play again, and, if so, will he be recognizable?

The post Jerod Mayo retirement ripple appeared first on Questionable To Start.

But then, yesterday, this hit the fan from NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport:

#Saints star TE Jimmy Graham expected to miss 2-3 weeks after the bye with a shoulder sprain, source says. Likely out vs. #Lions & #Packers

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 12, 2014

WTF just happened? What happened to this minor shoulder injury? Who sits out that long with a simple shoulder sprain (likely an AC sprain)?

Well, you’ve heard me ramble on about this database of mine, right? Sometimes it’s good for something. Right now, I can pull it up and tell you that virtually zero players miss three to four weeks with simple shoulder sprains (I’ve added one extra week to account for the Saints bye that occurred this week… Rapoport’s Tweet makes a point to say that the two-to-three week thing is after the bye). Nobody is out for that long with this injury, unless maybe you’re a quarterback that is already on your way down the depth chart and you need a benching, a la Alex Smith 2010 with his three week AC sprain absence. Aside from that, you’d have to be Matthew Stafford (he of the detachable shoulders), who wrestled with it in his throwing shoulder in 2010 and ended up missing 14 games.

Historically, this is an injury that most people play through. They tend to manage their reps and sit out a lot of mid-week practices, but they play on Sunday. Even Fragile Felix Jones managed to play through this one. Given this discrepancy, we’re left to wonder if perhaps Jimmy Graham is dealing with a certified Worst Case Scenario and needs surgery. RB Ryan Williams went that route in 2012 and missed 12 games due to shoulder surgery.

I guess we have no choice but to wait for Sean Payton to give an honest and open assessment of the health of one of his players. Trust me when I tell you that that joke kills in NFL injury circles.

Update: Looks like Rapsheet’s source was mistaken. Graham ended up returning, albeit in limited fashion, after the Week 6 bye, which was my original prediction.

The post Secretive Saints silent on shoulder appeared first on Questionable To Start.

After following NFL injuries for a while, I find myself really irritated when reporters are unwilling to speculate a little bit. Depending on the team/coach/player/injury, real tangible injury information might not be available for days, maybe even weeks. Or maybe ever, as is the case with Bill Belichick and my beloved Pats. In a perfect world, Belichick’s final injury report, his own (eventual) death certificate, will be ridiculously vague. Were he to die of a heart attack, it should read, “cause of death: torso.” Anyway, during these injury information black-outs, I don’t think it’s irresponsible to do a little guesswork… again, as long as you’re up front about it.

Graham’s injury has some easy clues for an injury sleuth like myself. Graham took a huge hit to his left shoulder. He sat out for a while, came back in, and then left for the sidelines again. In the postgame press conference, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton talked about Graham’s injury in an odd way, referencing how the injury affected Graham’s ability to play at, “full speed.” Those are all signs that point towards an AC sprain. In football, AC sprains are usually caused by a huge hit to the shoulder. Players can often play through AC sprains, and it is usually fairly safe to insert them back into the lineup to let them test the shoulder out. Notice that coach Payton said nothing about structural issues or extensive tests or even much concern. That indicates that this is a matter of, “pain only,” and that it can be managed, not something more serious like a dislocation or rotator cuff injury, which would both require surgery. It all screams classic AC sprain to me, and I don’t think it’s wrong to call it that until proven otherwise. This could also be something as minor as a shoulder bruise, but the dots don’t connect quite so well, so I’m sticking with AC sprain.

Let’s say that I’m right… what then? Not much. NFL players routinely play through AC sprains. Take a look at TE Jordan Cameron this year. He’s missed one preseason game and one regular season game while he plays through the injury. WR DeSean Jackson has yet to miss a game this year playing through the same injury. I can dig into my database and find enough examples of people playing through AC sprains that this one doesn’t worry me so much. For the most part, it is a pretty simple injury that will heal on its own with proper rest and management. Yeah, a few people really get knocked on their ass by it, but, in my database, those are mostly quarterbacks who rely on the shoulder muscles for precise throwing mechanics. And even then, a decent amount of QBs even play through the injury. One notable exception might be Detroit QB Matthew Stafford in 2010 when his season was tanked by this injury, but for once I’ll chose not to focus on the most extreme case.

Also, if you believe in the myth of a, “quick healer,” Jimmy Graham is awesome at that. I don’t believe in that poop. But I do believe that some players, whether by nature, training, ability, position, scheme, surrounding cast, whatever, might be more effective while playing through pain. In that sense, Graham is an absolute beast. He played through a very painful plantar fascia injury, which is often described as having, “sharp stabbing pains in the bottom of the foot.” Yeah, no thanks… I’m calling in sick because I just imagined what that feels like. He’s also come back pretty early from a (most likely) high ankle sprain, a finger dislocation, and some sort of vague wrist injury. This is not a guy who spends game day in the tub, folks. Best of all, Graham has a week 6 bye to rehab a bit without having to rush right back and prove himself as the iron man that we all expect.

This is where I love having this crackpot blog. It’s now almost 11am EST, Monday morning, and I get to see how many hours of lead time I scooped everyone else by. Or if I was just entirely wrong. That happened once.

The post Guessing on Graham appeared first on Questionable To Start.