Anyone who follows my writing knows that clavicle fractures have a special place in my heart. After all, that’s the injury that really started this blog. You could say that me and clavicle fractures go waaay back. Because of that, I’ll admit that I was a little excited to see Buffalo RB C.J. Spiller suffer a clavicle injury today. It’s not that I dislike Spiller, and it’s not that I root for injuries, it’s just that I’ve got plenty to say on this one, and it might even be relevant. Also, I should note that, as I write this, I’m really just assuming that he fractured his clavicle. It had all the look of it, but I have not heard official word on the diagnosis yet. If the diagnosis changes, obviously, the rest of this piece will too.
As usual, I’ll dig into my huge injury database and see what we’ve got brewing here. Let’s see how previous recent players have fared in their return-to-play from clavicle fractures. Right off the bat, let’s throw out all the examples of QB’s who had this injury. Even when the injury is to the non-throwing side of the collarbone, it still limits the motion of the opposite arm. Because of this, clavicle injuries to QB’s usually require a much more extended absence than other positions.
Of non QB’s from the years 2010 to the end of the 2013 season, I’m seeing a pretty small sample size. My database has just seven non-QBs with this injury. The absolute gold standard of recovery would be Marques Colston, who missed only two weeks with the injury in 2011, though he was slowly worked back into the mix upon his return. Danny Amendola came back after missing four weeks in 2012. Ryan Mathews missed five games at the start of 2012, then ended the season with the same injury and spending the last two weeks on injured reserve. Riley Cooper missed a total of nine weeks (four preseason and five regular season) with a clavicle fracture back in 2012. Then come the players who did not bounce back and return that season. Antoine Winfield went on injured reserve and missed seven games in 2011. Charles Woodson avoided injured reserve, but still sat out the rest of the season, missing 10 weeks in the process. Sanders Commings started the season on injured reserve in 2013 before later being released.
Let’s sift through all that to get a better idea of what we’re looking at for Spiller. Best case scenario is obviously that he can pull of that miraculous return after missing only two weeks like Colston did. More likely though is that he’s looking at the slightly-mortal window of missing four to seven weeks. But you also can’t rule out the possibility that he goes directly to IR, especially since we’re already at Week 7. If I had to guess (and I totally do), I’d say that there’s not much chance we see him until Week 13, a November 30th game against Cleveland. Yeah, there’s a chance he’s back earlier, but it’s not a big chance, no matter what the Bills front office might tell us. But, like I say, there’s still a very real chance that Spiller is done for the season… again, no matter what the Bills front office might tell us. Just make sure that you don’t get too attached to exact timetables that you hear in the next few days. This is one injury-stew that takes some time to simmer.
Update, October 19th, 7:30pm: Okay, looks like they went the IR route. Good for them for not wasting all of our time. Except for the time we wasted watching a Bills game, of course.
Update, October 21st: The Bills are getting jiggy with it, stashing Spiller on the injured reserve/designated for return (IR/DFR) list. That means that he could start week 16 at the earliest. Why would anyone want to come back and play the final two games of a Bills season? That’s like rushing back out on New Year’s morning to watch them clean up Times Square. Nothing but puke and regret there.
