I think we’ve been hoodwinked. I can’t prove it yet, but something stinks. Bad. And it’s not just the cushion of this office chair I spend hours on. Have you been following Jimmy Graham’s magical shoulder lately? I have. (Of course I have…this is what I do all day, aside from stink up the aforementioned office chair cushion). I’ve even written about it here. If you’re too busy to follow links (shame on you), I can sum it up pretty quickly. Saints TE Jimmy Graham injured his shoulder during the Week 5 game back on October 5th. Everyone said it wasn’t serious. The head coach said it. ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio said it. I said it. The injury just didn’t have the look of anything serious. As I mentioned in my piece, the Saints felt comfortable sending Graham back into the game to see how he felt. All talk seemed to be about how Graham’s problems would simply revolve around, “playing at full speed,” which, as I pointed out, usually means that it’s a pain-management issue, not a structural issue.
But then, yesterday, this hit the fan from NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport:
#Saints star TE Jimmy Graham expected to miss 2-3 weeks after the bye with a shoulder sprain, source says. Likely out vs. #Lions & #Packers
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 12, 2014
WTF just happened? What happened to this minor shoulder injury? Who sits out that long with a simple shoulder sprain (likely an AC sprain)?
Well, you’ve heard me ramble on about this database of mine, right? Sometimes it’s good for something. Right now, I can pull it up and tell you that virtually zero players miss three to four weeks with simple shoulder sprains (I’ve added one extra week to account for the Saints bye that occurred this week… Rapoport’s Tweet makes a point to say that the two-to-three week thing is after the bye). Nobody is out for that long with this injury, unless maybe you’re a quarterback that is already on your way down the depth chart and you need a benching, a la Alex Smith 2010 with his three week AC sprain absence. Aside from that, you’d have to be Matthew Stafford (he of the detachable shoulders), who wrestled with it in his throwing shoulder in 2010 and ended up missing 14 games.
Historically, this is an injury that most people play through. They tend to manage their reps and sit out a lot of mid-week practices, but they play on Sunday. Even Fragile Felix Jones managed to play through this one. Given this discrepancy, we’re left to wonder if perhaps Jimmy Graham is dealing with a certified Worst Case Scenario and needs surgery. RB Ryan Williams went that route in 2012 and missed 12 games due to shoulder surgery.
I guess we have no choice but to wait for Sean Payton to give an honest and open assessment of the health of one of his players. Trust me when I tell you that that joke kills in NFL injury circles.
Update: Looks like Rapsheet’s source was mistaken. Graham ended up returning, albeit in limited fashion, after the Week 6 bye, which was my original prediction.
