What’s the deal with the optimistic collarbone fracture return-to-play estimates lately? Remember back when QB Nick Foles suffered a collarbone fracture and everyone started out saying he’d be back in one month? (If you don’t remember that, I highlighted it here.) (Also, Foles has now missed five weeks, and it doesn’t sound like he’s all that close to returning yet.) I’ve ranted about this injury all the way back to Aaron Rodger’s in 2013, so I like to think that I’m a little familiar with what a realistic return-to-play estimate should be for this one. I even start to take it for granted that this is a pretty simple open-and-shut sort of case, but then I read things like this:
#Chargers P Mike Scifres is having surgery on his broken clavicle this morning, source said. Should be back for the playoffs if SD makes it
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 8, 2014
As always, I should point out that I don’t know a damn thing about Scifres’ exact injury. Maybe Rapsheet’s info is good on this one and comes from a source with a much clearer picture than I have. But at first glance, that estimate seems pretty damn optimistic. Saying that Scifres’, “should be back,” comes off sounding a lot like when I say that I, “should,” stop eating Synders cheddar cheese pretzel pieces before I finish the entire bag. I don’t need to tell you how that one ends.
As I’ve outlined with other players like Foles and Rodgers, the standard timetable is for a player to miss about 6-8 weeks, and usually closer to the 8 week side of that than the 6 week side. And that’s only if everything goes well. Using that standard and only slightly optimistic 6-8 week absence window, let’s project that onto the Charger’s schedule and see what we get. If Scifres were to miss only five weeks (a very favorable outcome), that would put his first game back as the AFC Championship game on January 18th. A more realistic timeline might have him coming back for the Superbowl, but that would mean he’d need to be back after missing only seven weeks. Yes, that is reasonable… if everything works out correctly.
Yes yes, I know you’re dying to point out that a punter might be able to come back sooner, as he doesn’t have to stand up to the same abuse as other positions. I would argue that that’s short-sighted. A fractured bone needs somewhere in the ballpark of those six or seven weeks in order to heal so that there is no longer a high chance of re-injury and re-fracture. So while they might be able to get him back closer to five weeks, it would not be in anyone’s best interest. Somehow Marques Colston came back after missing only two weeks with a fractured collarbone in 2011, but that was crazy and has not been repeated since.
Perhaps the biggest reason that we can be pretty sure Scifres is finished for the year though comes down to simple roster management. The Chargers absolutely must sign a punter to replace Scifres now. Sure, the Bolts were able to have Nick Novak fill in in a pinch, and he ended up being pretty decent after settling into the role. But that’s not really his thing, and the Chargers will absolutely sign someone this week. My vote is for Zoltan Mesko, but that’s mostly because I love this photo of him. Now, once a replacement is signed, do you really think the Chargers are going to keep Scifres’ roster spot (1 of a limited 53) open just in the hope that everything works out exactly right and he comes back late into a playoff run? Nothing against punters, but it seems there would probably be some better uses for that slot, especially with the punishment that those extra playoff games can inflict on players.
Given all that, doesn’t it seem like it would just be faster to shut this one down and move on?
