This seems to be the first week (probably of many) where NFL players recovering from knee injuries come out to say that they are, “ahead of schedule,” without giving us a single reason why they feel that way. I dug into the topic earlier when NaVorro Bowman seemed to be speaking out of his butt. I guess nobody warned Colts receiver Reggie Wayne that I was out on BS patrol, because yesterday Wayne said in an interview not just that he was ahead of schedule, but that he was, “way ahead of schedule.” As is typical, he failed to follow that up with any real evidence for us to use to evaluate his claim. And, as is typical, I sat down and tried to figure out why I didn’t believe him. Trouble is, I’ve got nothing here. Wayne tore his ACL back in October, and he’ll be more than ten months removed from that injury by the time the 2014 season starts. The story could change a little depending on what information is reported during the upcoming organized team activities, but for right now, I sort of believe him.
Now, as to what sort of numbers we can expect to see from Wayne in 2014, that’s a different story. I’ve looked back at some historical data, and I can say with 100% certainty that I simply have no clue what Wayne will look like next year. I told you before that I would admit if I didn’t know things. This is a good example of where my database fails me. In looking back at recent wide receiver ACL injury bounce-back years, there just aren’t many good examples. In fact, there’s really only one, and it’s not great. Wes Welker came back from a 2010 ACL injury to start Week 1 of 2011. In 2011, he put up some huge numbers, crushing his already-impressive 2010 stats. Beyond Welker, there isn’t much to compare Wayne to. Yes, there are some other recent WR’s, but nobody anywhere close to the caliber of Reggie Wayne. I don’t think it’s fair to compare comeback numbers from role players like Kyle Williams, David Nelson, Domenik Hixon, Jordan Shipley, or Ryan Broyles, even if they all had similar knee injuries. I could go back a little further and try to throw another big name like Terrell Owens in there, but he was already in steep decline when he tore his ACL in 2011. I can even find a good study about how wide receivers (as well as running backs) typically come back at about two-thirds of their pre-injury levels. It’s a good read, but then you see they studied players from 1998-2002. That’s a whole different world in terms of ACL treatment.
One thing that I will point out (and I won’t be the first to do so) is that Reggie Wayne is significantly older than most other players who made great ACL recoveries. Wayne is now 35 years old. In automotive terms, they don’t make parts for that model anymore. Wayne is a full five years older than Welker was when he had his amazing recovery, and those five years might be a doozy. Whatever happens, I know that I’ll probably end up with a better database after the 2014 season is over, as I’ll have some decent stats for Reggie Wayne as well as Sidney Rice, Jeremy Maclin, and even tight end Rob Gronkowski, who are all high-caliber players trying to come back from similar ACL injuries.
So I guess what I’m really saying is that Reggie Wayne gets a pass from me. For now.
