I have a hunch that Pittsburgh Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey is done for the year. Over the weekend, he injured his left ankle pretty badly. In the most detailed report so far, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Ed Bouchette said that Pouncey fractured his fibula above his ankle. Other reports have been less specific, making it hard to verify exactly what’s going on with Pouncey. Until we hear otherwise though, let’s just stick with that fractured fibula (aka fractured ankle… it’s really the same thing in this case).
One could be forgiven for thinking that Pouncey might make it back this season. A fractured fibula/ankle like this can sometimes be rehabbed in as little as six weeks. I mean, it’s rare, but it happens. Donovan McNabb missed only seven weeks with this in 2002, and Terrell Owens missed only six weeks with it in 2004. (Total credit to Footballguys injury czar Jene Bramel for pointing those two examples out to me.) But I can also tell you that based on my own database, which tends to focus on 2010 to present, these returns are rare. As in, I have zero. Sure, there’s an occasional judgement call that could go either way, such as RB Charles Sims who suffered an ankle injury in the 2014 preseason and returned to play in Week 10. Sims either fractured his ankle or had severe ligament damage, or both, depending on which reports you read. Or there’s DB Mistral Raymond (no, I didn’t reverse the first and last name, so don’t bother telling me I did) who missed only six games with an ankle injury that was reported as everything from a bone bruise to a dislocation to a fracture. But these are odd, sloppy, murky examples that I’ve given up on making heads or tails of. When it comes down to actual fractured fibulas, or the more vague fractured ankles, or the even more vague ankle surgery, the results are mostly similar, and they’re mostly all bleak. Season ending IR.
This is an interesting intersection of sports medicine and NFL roster management. An optimistic rehab on a fractured fibula near the ankle, assuming there is no other damage, might run as low as six weeks. Maybe eight weeks would be more realistic. But that means that there’s still a decent chance of ten weeks, depending on how everything progresses (and again, assuming there is no other damage). Now put yourself in the place of a head coach or team medical staff. A solid (but I would argue not outstanding) center like Pouncey fractures his ankle. What do you do with him? You only get one injured reserve, designated for return (IR/DFR) slot all year. Just the one. In Pouncey’s favor is the fact that the injury happened so early in the preseason. Players can come off the IR/DFR shelf and play again eight weeks after being put on IR (which in this case would have to be done after the preseason, on the first day of the regular season). So Pouncey could play again as early as Week 8. Depending on the extent of his injury, that might be realistic. But do you really want to use your only IR/DFR slot for him? What if a more valuable player, such as Le’Veon Bell, comes down with a serious, but not season-ending, injury? Or what if Pouncey doesn’t recover as you expected? And again, all this assumes that Pouncey’s injury is only a simple fractured fibula. You see the dilemma here?
I can’t tell you exactly how much goes into making decisions like that. But what I can tell you for certain is that in the recent past, when this exact decision has been made, it has almost always resulted in season-ending IR. Right or wrong, that’s just how it’s panned out. I don’t see any reason that it won’t play out the same way in Pouncey’s case.
Update: On September 6th, Pittsburgh ignored my unsolicited advice and placed Pouncey on IR/DFR. I cannot wait to see if he does indeed come back this year, and when.
