Le’Veon Bell gave Steelers fans something to worry about on Sunday when he hyperextended his right knee in Sunday’s Week 17 game. Judging from early reports, it looked like Bell was doubtful to come back and play this weekend. Things didn’t seem any rosier when news came out that the Steelers had signed RB Ben Tate as a likely replacement for Bell. Reports today sounds a little more optimistic, as Bell has at least been spotted walking without any limp. Rather than get too caught up in the daily, “will he or won’t he,” talk, I figured this was a good time to dig into historical data.
As always, there are plenty of problems with historical injury comparisons. I always admit to that, but I think they might be a good starting point here. First of all, I’d completely disregard the details reported about how Bell has no ligament damage. Yeah, that’s a good sign… but that really only serves to separate his hyperextension from more severe injuries. Basically, if there was a hyperextension with ligament damage, it would be categorized as a different injury, such as an MCL, ACL, LCL, or PCL sprain. The historical examples I have of other knee hyperextensions should be a good starting point, as they also will not be larger ligament injuries.
Whew, enough buildup. Here’s the chart you’re all getting frothy for:
Knee Hyperextension
In a nutshell, Bell has a good chance of still playing this weekend. I’m not saying that he will… I know nothing about Bell’s exact situation. But historically, the chances are good. My database contains 17 players with knee hyperextensions between 2010 and now, and eleven of them missed zero games. That’s about 65% of the pool. Another four players (or 24%) missed one week. Beyond that, the pickings get slim, as one player missed two weeks, zero players missed three weeks, and only one player (LT Brandon Albert, 2013) missed four games. This isn’t a huge data pool, so we shouldn’t get too carried away drawing conclusions from it. But it does indicate that Bell has at least a reasonable chance to play this week. Even if Le’Veon were to miss this week, that data would indicate he might have a great shot at returning down the stretch should the Steelers advance deeper into the playoffs.
I’m no Steelers fan, but Le’Veon Bell is always fun to watch, so I’ll be rooting for him to make it back this Saturday. At least according to the numbers, it seems like there’s a good chance.
