Injury impact: Carolina at Seattle

I always lead with too much fluff, so I’ll get right to it. I see a possible monster day for Seattle, particularly for Marshawn Lynch. With my narrow focus on injuries, I feel like I sometimes notice things that others do not. (Of course, I miss plenty that others see, so there’s that too). In this week’s Carolina at Seattle matchup, I see one key area where current injuries could have a huge effect on the outcome. Seattle is already an eleven point favorite, so it’s not like I’m going out on a limb here, but still, I think this game could get nuts. In my view, this might hinge on the injuries to two players; Seattle center Max Unger and Carolina defensive tackle Star Lotulelei.

Seattle’s center, Max Unger has missed a lot of time this season. He missed four games with a foot sprain, then another six games with a high ankle sprain. Based on what I read, he is expected back in the lineup Saturday. Because of Unger’s injuries, I thought it might be interesting to see how Seattle has played with and without him this season. Unsurprisingly, it turns out that Seattle averages more yards per carry when Unger is in the lineup. Have a look:

Now go ahead and argue the significance of that 1.2 yards per carry all you like. I’m fine if you want to dismiss it entirely. Seattle had some bad games on the ground with Unger, and some good games without him, so this is not an iron-clad case. But I do think there’s something there.

That difference with Unger becomes even more important once you consider that Carolina’s stout defensive tackle, Star Lotulelei, has been placed on injured reserve with a broken foot. Without Lotulei in the lineup, the Panthers will have to go to their reserve defensive linemen. We’ll see either Colin Cole or Dwan Edwards (or both) stepping up to fill that role. No offense to either, but typically depth players are depth players for a reason. Look for a healthy Seattle offensive line to exploit this matchup.

Of course, the biggest winner in all of this mismatch might well be Marshawn Lynch. Lynch has a habit of coming on strong in the playoffs, and there could be some serious daylight in front of him all day. If Lynch can take advantage of this and consistently break into the secondary, there’s no reason why he couldn’t have a monster of a day. If he does, that eleven point spread might seem low. In the words of the great Bart Scott, “can’t wait!”