Finger or thumb fracture return to play
Right off the bat, I should address why I combined finger and thumb fractures into one RTP chart. I did it because they had roughly similar return to play numbers. The thumb fractures were actually a little more pessimistic in terms of RTP than the finger fractures, but the difference was pretty slight. In general, the finger fractures were more likely to miss zero games, while the thumb fractures were more likely to miss at least some time. But we’re talking a really small sample size here, which is part of why I’m more comfortable combining them into one group. The group for the RTP chart above contains only 27 players, and the charts get much more random when we start getting down into pools of 13 or 14 players, as would happen if I separated the two fractures.
I’ve got to say, this injury estimate surprised me. I would’ve thought that finger or thumb fractures would’ve caused players to miss more time than this. It amazes me that so many players miss zero games while recovering from these fractures. Put together, a little more than half the players with these fractures miss one week or less. Of course there can be complications, and I’m not trying to overlook that, but it does like like this is a pretty minor injury, at least as far as NFL injuries go.
Even among quarterbacks who fracture a finger or thumb on their throwing hand, this might not be that severe of an injury. In 2011, Matthew Stafford fractured his right index finger and missed zero games. Also in 2011, Ben Roethlisberger timed it right so that he fractured his right thumb before the Steelers bye week, and started the game after the bye. Not all QBs were quite so lucky. Shaun Hill missed three games with a finger fracture while Jay Cutler sat out the last six games of the season, eventually landing on the IR list, with a fractured thumb. Still, I would argue those aren’t bad results for an injury that seems like it might be so debilitating.
Of course, I’m not here to spread cheer. Keep in mind that if roughly half of the players come back after missing one week or less, then roughly half of them must’ve missed two weeks or more. Hope I didn’t lose you with that math. So while it’s easy to downplay this injury based on the heavily weighted fast RTPs on the left hand side of that chart, that’s still no guarantee that a player will return quickly.
