When ripping the general safety of the NFL, I’m sometimes asked about possible solutions. Fair enough. But there’s no way to cram an answer into 140 characters, even if we count Bitmoji’s. Obviously, this is a perfect topic for a ranty blog!

As I see it, the NFL is at a crossroads. As an organization, they have been slow to recognize, acknowledge, and adapt to growing safety concerns, especially with concussions and CTE (chronic traumatic encephalopathy). The NFL is sitting on a staggering cash cow, and they seem largely unwilling to do anything that might upset their skyrocketing popularity. Thus far, they’ve mostly chosen to make it appear that they’re serious about safety, without actually having to sacrifice anything. Every time a concussed player stays in a game, the NFL brass gets a little worried and gives stern warnings. Maybe they even add a new rule or clause, perhaps bring a new doctor into the loop. But if this is progress, it’s coming at glacial speeds.

I am of the opinion that the NFL must pick one of two options. These options are entirely incongruent, and there would be no possible blending of the two.

Option number one is to make the game safer. I don’t know what this would look like, but it would not look like the NFL we know. Most likely, we’re talking flag football. Or maybe it’s crazy new body armor… or no padding at all. I’m not smart enough to figure out how football could ever be made safe, but I know that it would be a drastic change. With a change like this, tons of revenue might be lost. Fans would be upset. The focus on safety might only highlight how unsafe the game is, the same way that seatbelts initially reminded drivers that cars were dangerous. I am not blind to the blowback from such an option.

Option number two is to leave the game unchanged, but to openly admit that it is not safe. Many things we love are not safe, and football could just be one more to add right up there with firearms, bacon, alcohol, and motorcycles. But, as long as the NFL is entirely open about this, one could argue that every player knew what they were getting into. (This is currently not the case, as the NFL continues to fund bogus research as well as interfere with valid research on the subject of player safety.) Obviously, the NFL would face some blowback from this option as well.

But the one thing the NFL cannot do is attempt to go with option number two while simultaneously pretending that they are attempting option number one. This does not work, as we’ve been seeing for a while now. If the NFL wants to be safe, they should embrace that change and wherever it might lead. If the NFL wants to remain dangerous, they should fess up and stick to their guns. Neither option is inherently right nor wrong. But either one would be an honest and focused improvement on the NFL’s current stance.

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Believe it or not, I actually feel a little bad being so pessimistic about injured NFL players. It’s not that I want them to be injured, or that I don’t want to see them bounce right back, it’s just that time after time we seem to overlook the possible complications and setbacks, and I feel I need to highlight those risks. After (yet again) expressing pessimism about Le’Veon Bell’s knee injury from last season, I spent a bit of time thinking about my outlook and my pessimism. Rather than put the blame squarely on myself, I decided to drag Sir Issac Newton onto my side, whether or not he likes it. If Newton really wanted to disagree with me, he should’ve lived another 289 years.

Issac Newton dominated science. Absolutely crushed it. Like GOAT, though maybe he’s the second-fiddle Peyton Manning to Albert Einstein (who is clearly Tom Brady in this analogy). Regardless, Newton was the man. Among his revolutionary laws of physics, I’m going to focus on his first law, which by the time any of us can understand it, is dumbed down to something like this: (from Wikipedia)

An object that is at rest will stay at rest unless a force acts upon it.

There’s something very simple here that I feel is entirely applicable to NFL injuries. For my purposes, let’s update this law to:

A player who is injured will remain injured until proven otherwise.

Let’s boil things way down. For our purposes, imagine, “injured,” to be a binary designation. Either a player is injured or he is not. He cannot be neither, and he cannot be both. Until an injured player actually returns and plays another game, he is injured, no matter what the specific details might be.

Now don’t jump the gun by pointing out that time itself and the human body’s healing process count as an outside force that acts upon the player. Yes, that is entirely true. But the problem is, we often have no way of knowing how close the player is to returning to the lineup. Even after a player returns to practice, he is often held out of games, or worse yet for fantasy owners, is designated a, “game-time decision.” That’s the sort of ambiguity that can be avoided by adapting Newton’s first law.

Think of the many advantages of adopting this injury philosophy. In fantasy football (traditional or DFS), you will sometimes be wrong and miss out on some value. Someone else will take on the risk of rostering a recently-injured player, and that risk will sometimes pay off. But I would argue that the upside of that risk is heavily countered by the downside. Rostering a player who either doesn’t start or is ineffective or limited due to recent injury would likely be a devastating blow to any fantasy lineup. If volatility is your goal and the cost is right, there’s a great argument for recently-injured players. But this is a situation where an owner would truly need to understand the gamble, and I’m not confident that most do.

Aside from fantasy football, this injury philosophy could do wonders to relieve the stress of football fans. Rather than comb through multiple media reports trying to get everyone’s (often conflicting) takes on what’s happening with an injured player, you can just tune out the noise and focus on something else. This is the equivalent of taking a roadtrip and saying, “We’ll get there when we get there.” Or not setting an alarm clock to wake up in the morning (obviously back before I had kids that make it their goal to wake me up at 6 a.m. no matter what).

To those who would question the final accuracy of Newton’s law of NFL injuries, I would argue that it’s actually fairly accurate. Every week (or day/month/whatever) that a player remains injured, you were correct in your assumption. At some unknown point, that player will return to the lineup, and you will then be wrong for assuming that he would remain injured. But you will be wrong once, and only once. Those people that try to read the tea leaves and predict the return of an injured player might make false predictions multiple times during the recovery of one player. (Believe me, I appreciate the irony of this post, as I very much make it my business to make such return predictions.)

So, what do you say readers? Does Isaac Newton’s first law have anything useful to add to our fantasy football decisions? I’m curious to know how this sits with people.

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1. Watkins had broken his foot about one month ago
2. Watkins had surgery which involved inserting a screw into his foot
3. Watkins recovery time was ballparked at 6-8 weeks
4. The Bills were targeting a Week 1 return for Watkins

Although no exact details have been released, I tend to agree with those who are more qualified than myself (such as Dr. Jene Bramel) and believe that this is most likely a Jones fracture. Jones fractures are not uncommon with wide receivers, as we’ve seen them most recently in Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, and DeVante Parker. A Jones fracture isn’t a minor injury, but it’s not the worst injury to have, especially so early in the offseason. Watkins has time to be conservative in his recovery, and while I seriously question the lower end of that, “6-8 week,” spectrum, there’s no reason to expect that he wouldn’t be ready to be eased back into preseason action in August, 4 months removed from surgery.

That’s not to say that recoveries from Jones fractures are a slam-dunk. Dez Bryant had a pretty poor recovery last season, though that was likely due to him rushing back too soon. Marvin Jones was similarly plagued by trying to come back too soon in 2014. As for WRs who suffered the injury during the offseason, Demaryius Thomas stands out to me. He fractured his foot in February of 2010, and didn’t play until Week 2, a full 7 months post-surgery. Thomas even had his surgery from Dr. Robert Anderson, who is the gold-standard for foot issues among athletes. I can’t tell you what specific setbacks Thomas might have suffered, but I bring him up as a way of pointing out that these things don’t always go according to plans. In fairness, Jones fracture treatment has advanced since 2010.

But the real issue here might be Watkins’ exact injury. If it was indeed a Jones fracture, then we should have more clarity on how close he is to returning by the time camp is wrapping up or the preseason is starting. But there’s a chance that this injury is something more severe. I think it’s a small chance, but let me throw this out there. One early report from the almost-always reliable Ian Rapoport mentioned that the fracture was to a, “small bone,” in his foot. In injury terms, “small bone in the foot,” is worrisome as it often indicates a midfoot injury. Midfoot injuries, a blanket category that includes Lisfranc injuries, can be notoriously slow healers, and frequently knock players out for longer, unpredictable lengths of time. Add to this the fact that the Bills have set a Week 1 return expectation, which is roughly 5 months after Watkins’ surgery, and things start to look a little differently. Personally, I think that the most likely scenario here is that Rapoport’s report is slightly flawed (or just oddly worded) and that the Bills are setting a very conservative return date because that’s just the smart way to handle this. But until we hear a specific diagnosis, this is still a fluid situation and it bears watching. Should any future clues lead us closer to the diagnosis of a midfoot injury, then Watkins’ Week 1 status could be seriously in doubt.

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Everything that I’m about to say here shouldn’t really have to be said. But since we’re less than a week away from the NFL Draft, many people seem to prefer hype to reality. As usual, this is my chance to be a total buzzkill and bring everyone back to Earth. People love it when I do that.

The best example for today’s rant is Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith. Smith was once in position to be a slam-dunk first round draft pick, with a good chance to be within the first 10 players to come off the board. But in the Fiesta Bowl on January 1st, Smith tore his ACL and LCL. That’s not a good combo, but it’s not exactly a death-sentence either. If Smith’s injury was limited to just those two ligaments, then his biggest obstacle might’ve simply been time, as he was unlucky to get injured so late in the season and so close to the NFL Combine. But the bigger concern now is that Smith is still dealing with nerve damage in his injured knee, and therefore cannot lift the front of his foot.

Smith’s medical team has mostly tried to downplay his nerve injury, but I’m here to tell you that nerve damage is an entirely different kettle of fish than many NFL injuries. When a bone breaks, there is generally clearly defined progress in the healing process. It’s broken, it’s healing, it’s still healing, and eventually it’s healed. Sure, there can be setbacks such as infections or later fractures if the bone is stressed again. But the healing process here is mostly a straight line. Muscle and ligament injuries such as strains and sprains are less linear, but will still frequently follow a general forward progression. But nerve injuries, no, not so much. Basically nerve damage is a just a huge question mark. Perhaps the nerve will heal on its own and sensation will return. Perhaps surgery will be needed to help this process along. But really, all bets are generally off when it comes to reliable, predictable timetables. (Note, there are timetables about nerve healing, I’m just saying that nerve injuries often vary significantly from those predictions).

For comparison, anyone remember Peyton Manning’s nerve saga? It took Manning one year, somewhere between two and four surgeries (depending on who you believe) and multiple (usually reported as four) trips to Europe for experimental procedures. And while you could view Manning as an example of a success, one could easily argue that his was a qualified success at best. Even years later, Manning was still affected by the injury, but his experience and his position allowed him to compensate in order to stay on the field. A rookie like Jaylon Smith is less likely to be able to do the same should he return at less than 100%.

I started this rambling post though to get to one point. When Smith’s medical team (in this example, Dr. Dan Cooper) says something like:

He has a very good chance of getting his nerve recovery back.

Then it’s important that we acknowledge that a different way of phrasing the exact same idea would be:

He has a chance of never getting his nerve recovery back.

In defense of Smith’s doctor, he went on to give a lot of very specific medical information that backed up his optimism, and you can read that here in this USA Today piece. Also, reporter Tom Pelissero did a great job breaking things down there and pointing out that there are no guarantees here, so I have no beef with him. My issue is that, when reduced to a blurb, this story simply gets spun as, “Smith should be fine, eventually.” In reality, we have no way of knowing that he will be fine, and we have no way of knowing exactly what timeframe he might be looking at. Given all those unknowns, I find myself frustrated to read that Smith might be a great mid- to late-round steal should he bounce back. I mean, I get it, but my point is simply that his risk is high, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves by assuming that he’ll be fine after a rookie redshirt season.

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Think about this from the standpoint of an NFL player. The players union (NFLPA) has a very specific set of rules over how frequently a player can be drug tested, and there is a clear outline for the procedure. Yes, I understand that a blood test for a concussion should not be testing for performance enhancing drugs. These are different things, I get it. But, in the collective minds of the players and the union, do you think that they would be comfortable giving blood samples that could in theory be used to test for banned substances? Unless there was a bullet-proof system hammered out and agreed to by the NFLPA, there is no way a player would voluntarily give a blood sample which could reveal so much more than simply a concussion diagnosis.

In case I didn’t make it clear, I’m 100% in favor of the research. We need every test, treatment, and solution in regards to concussions. In this case, the problem I see is everyone’s knee-jerk reaction to think that this particular test might be applicable to the NFL. In the current NFL, it seems like there’s not much upside to blood samples.

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It would be fair to say that getting to the bottom of NFL injuries drives me crazy. Yes, it’s a big part of my job. And yes, the very lack of clarity that I’m complaining about is one of the biggest reasons that I even have a job. But still, there are times that I hate it simply because I never end up with any clear answers. Such is the case right now with DB Byron Maxwell and his reported shoulder injury.

Back in Week 15, Maxwell injured his shoulder. The details that came out a few days later indicated that it was an SC sprain, SC being short for sternoclavicular. This is a ligament sprain where your clavicle (or collarbone) attaches to your sternum. It’s a fairly rare injury, and depending on the details, it can be pretty severe, even life-threatening, though not in the case of Maxwell. I’m a little tempted to go on a rant pointing out that an SC sprain might be better labeled as a clavicle or chest injury than a shoulder injury, but I’ll leave that one on the shelf.

Maxwell missed the final two weeks of the season with his SC sprain. Obviously, that was at least a two-week injury, so I’ve logged it as such in my database. But Maxwell’s case gets stranger after the season ends. On March 9th, while giving Maxwell a pre-trade physical, it was reported that Maxwell’s SC sprain was still very much limiting him. Here’s a Tweet from all-things-Philly reporter Les Bowen:

Source: Maxwell went to Miami for physical, told Dolphins’ doc he couldn’t do bench press or pushups. Told Eagles he was fine at end of year

— Les Bowen (@LesBowen) March 9, 2016

And just to make matters more confusing, here’s Bowen’s follow-up Tweet:

Maxwell sprained SC joint, where collarbone meets sternum, missed last 2 games. Told Eagles he could’ve played if they’d made the playoffs

— Les Bowen (@LesBowen) March 9, 2016

So which Byron Maxwell are we to believe? Les Bowen is a reliable insider, so I have no beef with him here. I specifically used Bowen’s reports here because they are reliable and at the same time, completely inconsistent. He’s just pointing out the same murkiness that I spend my nights and weekends wading through.

As I see it, there are a few options here. Perhaps Maxwell’s injury was worse than originally reported. Maybe Maxwell wasn’t too happy about the Miami trade and he attempted to intentionally submarine the trade by raising injury concerns, (as argued by Steve DelVecchio here), though I find that pretty dubious. When sleuthing down injuries though, I find that the most likely scenario is often the one that doesn’t involve outright lying or conspiracies. In that vein, I’d guess that Maxwell’s SC sprain simply didn’t respond to treatment as well as everyone had expected, and that it is still limiting him. Unfortunately, until we get a clearer picture of exactly what’s going on, I’ll need to stay on top of this case. As it stands now, Maxwell’s return-to-play counter is at almost 2 months, and the clock is still running.

The post Byron Maxwell, a case study in injury murkiness appeared first on Questionable To Start.

I think the true importance of Jerod Mayo can best be seen in how the Patriots defense was shaped around him. The guy was a beast of a middle linebacker. He was a sure tackler, above-average cover man, and a smart defensive captain. This rare combo allowed the Patriots to do two important things. First, it gave Belichick the confidence to switch back to a 4-3 defense in 2011, Mayo’s fourth season in the NFL. I suspect Belichick had seen enough from Mayo over the previous three seasons that he was certain Mayo could handle the extra importance of being the sole middle linebacker in this new scheme.

Secondly, Mayo’s reliable play in the middle elevated other Patriots. Because of Mayo, the Patriots were able to get away with using some players that were, how shall we put it… “not so great?” When you know that the middle is reasonably tied up, you can start defensive ends who maybe aren’t exactly the typical starting caliber NFL players. No offense to anyone, but Mike Wright and Mark Anderson spring to mind, as both posted surprisingly good stats playing with Mayo in the middle. I’m tempted to throw Rob Ninkovich into the conversation as well, though Ninkovich is absolutely talented in his own right.

Here’s where I open a can of worms by trashing Pats fans, a group I wholeheartedly belong to. One of the frequent criticisms of Pats fans, aside from their obnoxious loud-mouthiness, is that they take the Patriots success for granted. Nothing is ever good enough for them. Yes, they have possibly the best quarterback to ever play the game, but they’ll still rain down some boo’s if Brady has three consecutive stalled drives. I see both sides on that, and I don’t really care if people boo or cheer or whatever. But Jerod Mayo brought out an argument from some fans that I always felt really showed how spoiled they could be. In ESPN beat writer Mike Reiss’s column, I can remember reading many fan-submitted comments along the lines of, “Yes, Mayo is good. But as a first-round pick, he should really be coming up with more sacks/interceptions/fumble recoveries. He’s just okay, not great like he should be.” Bullshit of the highest order, I say. Mayo did exactly what he was brought in to do, and he did it spectacularly. As Reiss always pointed out, there were always 31 other NFL teams that would’ve loved to have Mayo. Fans (of any teams) often have little appreciation for the reliable, if not flashy, defensive contributors. That’s a shame.

Lastly, Jerod Mayo will always have a special place in the heart of all Patriots fans due to his connection with Spygate. The Patriots lost their 2008 first-round draft pick as punishment for the 2007 Spygate debacle. But Belichick’s strategy of always trading a pick today for a better pick tomorrow paid off big time, as it left the Patriots with a prime pick in the 2008 draft. Back in 2007, San Francisco wanted to move up to select tackle Joe Staley. New England agreed, at a steep price of course. That 2007 late-first round, pick number 28 eventually netted the Patriots Jerod Mayo at 2008, 10th overall, as well as Randy Moss. How’s that for a deal? A few seasons later, Patriots fans could look back at the two players the Pats were able to pick up despite the harsh (though perhaps fair) punishment handed down by the league, and smirk an obnoxious smirk.

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My first thought when I heard Mayo’s news was, “Well, that doesn’t bode well for Jimmy Graham.” It’s not that there’s any direct connection there, so I’ll explain. Part of the recent decline of Jerod Mayo is his patellar tendon rupture from Week 6 of 2014. This is a devastating injury, and Mayo was one of the few success stories in recent memory. While he did not return as the stud he once was, he was at least a serviceable rotational player, which is more than can be said about almost everyone else who has suffered the same injury. So now, the best-case-scenario comp for Jimmy Graham’s potential recovery is retiring due in part to declining health.

Like I said, the two players aren’t directly connected. Mayo’s declining health does not necessarily mean that Graham will follow suit. Mayo also suffered a torn pectoral to close out this season, an injury that ended his 2013 season as well, and this is likely a big part of his decision to retire. But, even when healthy this season, Mayo was not the player he once was. This all leads me to question whether we’ll see Jimmy Graham play again, and, if so, will he be recognizable?

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Although, I haven’t been able to clear protocol the specialist I have met with have told me they expect a full recovery. I’m looking forward that, returning to form, having a good offseason and an even better 2016 season.

It’s notable that this piece was published December 14th, a full six weeks after Haden’s second concussion. So after six weeks, Haden still hadn’t been cleared from his concussion, and yet he’s talking about how everyone expects him to have a full recovery. Again, I can’t stress this enough, I hope that he does recover. But to throw this out there like it’s a given is just ridiculous.

It even gets a little worse, as two weeks after that quote, Browns beat writer Nate Ulrich tweeted this:

#Browns CB Joe Haden said he experienced headaches, light sensitivity, was hidden in his house for a month or two.

— Nate Ulrich (@NateUlrichABJ) December 31, 2015

Does this sound like a man who we should expect a full recovery from? Maybe this is a bias in my own memory, but Haden’s case reminds me of that of Raiders LB Nick Roach, and that one didn’t end so well.

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Things have settled down a bit now, and I’m trying to get back on some sort of respectable schedule on this blog. I’ve got a few pieces I’ll be posting just to clean out my notebook, so please forgive me if they’re a wee-bit stale. I’m hoping to get caught up on some of the older stuff (and my huge workload of database entry) and throw out some pieces on the NFL draft and free agency from an injury standpoint. As always, be sure to chime in or drop me a line if you have any specific requests for the offseason. Please do not request that I write a long-form piece on how devastatingly close my Patriots came to making another Super Bowl appearance.

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