Yup, that alliterated title is a stretch. It’s not Tampa Bay tackle Demar Dotson’s diagnosis that is dire, but more like his prognosis. Insert that into the title though, and it sounds like garbage. So here we are. Just to bring you up to speed, Demar Dotson injured his left leg in Tampa Bay’s first preseason game. The diagnosis was an MCL sprain. I’ve written a whole page just about MCL sprains, and you can read that here if you’re so inclined. If not, I’ll sum up the good stuff for you here. Basically, Dotson’s injury isn’t that bad. Obviously, any sprain is not an awesome thing that you love to have, but really, given all the different NFL injuries, an MCL sprain is getting off pretty easy. For the record, if I suffered an MCL sprain I would spend months in bed and compare it to the (thankfully unknown to me) pain of childbirth. But for an NFL player… not so bad. In fact, here’s a return-to-play chart that I put together based on 76 NFL players that had confirmed MCL sprains between from 2010 – 2014. (Oh, and you should really read my full breakdown for all of my important caveats as to my data.)
MCL Sprain/Tear RTP
Because of my callous dismissal of MCL sprains, I was surprised to see that the Tampa Bay Times was saying that Dotson could miss, “as much as 10 weeks,” with this injury. It’s not even that this 10 weeks estimate is incorrect, it just surprised me because it was so severe. Typical media reports tend to revolve around the best-case-scenario rehabs, and hardly ever take into account the more pessimistic possibilities. Without knowing anything about Dotson’s specific injury (aside from the fact that it’s an MCL sprain of course) I would’ve expected the media to sort of parrot something in the, “two to four weeks,” ballpark. Other sources went with, “six to ten weeks.” Indeed, Dotson himself said that he hopes to be back in six weeks. Still, that’s odd. Not necessarily wrong, but odd.
Take a look at that RTP chart again. Do you see how few people need six or more weeks to come back from this injury? I’ll be the first to admit that Dotson certainly knows more about his exact injury than I do, and that he has his reasons for shooting for that six week return. But I don’t get it. Even oft-injured G/T Roger Saffold missed only seven weeks with a severe (grade 3) MCL sprain in 2012. Saffold followed that up by missing only four weeks with another MCL sprain (of unknown severity) in 2013. So why the pessimistic mention of ten weeks as a possibility? I don’t know. Perhaps the team is being overly cautious. Perhaps they’re planning a roster move such as injured reserve with designation to return, and they’re simply working backwards based on when he’d first be eligible to return. Or maybe there is something really messed up with Dotson’s knee. I’m not saying that we’re not getting the whole truth… yet. I’m just saying that this one stood out to me.
