May 16th was a crazy news day for Bills WR Sammy Watkins. In the span of one day, it was revealed that:
- Watkins had broken his foot about one month ago
- Watkins had surgery which involved inserting a screw into his foot
- Watkins recovery time was ballparked at 6-8 weeks
- The Bills were targeting a Week 1 return for Watkins
Although no exact details have been released, I tend to agree with those who are more qualified than myself (such as Dr. Jene Bramel) and believe that this is most likely a Jones fracture. Jones fractures are not uncommon with wide receivers, as we’ve seen them most recently in Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, and DeVante Parker. A Jones fracture isn’t a minor injury, but it’s not the worst injury to have, especially so early in the offseason. Watkins has time to be conservative in his recovery, and while I seriously question the lower end of that, “6-8 week,” spectrum, there’s no reason to expect that he wouldn’t be ready to be eased back into preseason action in August, 4 months removed from surgery.
That’s not to say that recoveries from Jones fractures are a slam-dunk. Dez Bryant had a pretty poor recovery last season, though that was likely due to him rushing back too soon. Marvin Jones was similarly plagued by trying to come back too soon in 2014. As for WRs who suffered the injury during the offseason, Demaryius Thomas stands out to me. He fractured his foot in February of 2010, and didn’t play until Week 2, a full 7 months post-surgery. Thomas even had his surgery from Dr. Robert Anderson, who is the gold-standard for foot issues among athletes. I can’t tell you what specific setbacks Thomas might have suffered, but I bring him up as a way of pointing out that these things don’t always go according to plans. In fairness, Jones fracture treatment has advanced since 2010.
But the real issue here might be Watkins’ exact injury. If it was indeed a Jones fracture, then we should have more clarity on how close he is to returning by the time camp is wrapping up or the preseason is starting. But there’s a chance that this injury is something more severe. I think it’s a small chance, but let me throw this out there. One early report from the almost-always reliable Ian Rapoport mentioned that the fracture was to a, “small bone,” in his foot. In injury terms, “small bone in the foot,” is worrisome as it often indicates a midfoot injury. Midfoot injuries, a blanket category that includes Lisfranc injuries, can be notoriously slow healers, and frequently knock players out for longer, unpredictable lengths of time. Add to this the fact that the Bills have set a Week 1 return expectation, which is roughly 5 months after Watkins’ surgery, and things start to look a little differently. Personally, I think that the most likely scenario here is that Rapoport’s report is slightly flawed (or just oddly worded) and that the Bills are setting a very conservative return date because that’s just the smart way to handle this. But until we hear a specific diagnosis, this is still a fluid situation and it bears watching. Should any future clues lead us closer to the diagnosis of a midfoot injury, then Watkins’ Week 1 status could be seriously in doubt.
