In the biggest NFL injury news of the week, Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant fractured the fifth metatarsal on his right foot, and is looking at an extended absence. How extended? Well that depends on who you listen to. On the one hand, you have the, “straight from the horses’ mouth,” sort of reporting, which seems to mostly revolve around Dallas owner Jerry Jones or others within the organization. Here’s what that camp is pushing:
#Cowboys plan: For Dez Bryant to have surgery as soon as possible, likely today. Belief is rehab will have him ready closer to 4 than 6 wks
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 14, 2015
On the other end of the spectrum is the reality of how quickly players actually come back from similar foot fractures. Turns out there’s a big difference between the two camps. Historically, very few players miss less than 7 weeks. In my database, I have two recent players with similar injury that returned after missing exactly 6 weeks, and neither were wide receivers. I have not been able to confirm any NFL players who returned from this exact injury at anything less than 6 weeks. Beyond that, the more reasonable RTP seems to be in the “8-12 week,” range. But it should also be noted that there are plenty of examples where players take 3 months or more to recover, and often continue to have trouble afterwards, such as WR Hakeem Nicks. Others, like WR Marvin Jones, suffered related setbacks that kept them on the shelf even longer.
If history isn’t enough for you, then you can also listen to medical experts. As Dr. Jene Bramel pointed out on Twitter, “Dr. Robert Anderson, leading foot surgeon to NFL players, quotes 6-8 week recovery after 5th metatarsal fixation.” Dr. Robert Anderson is exactly the guy we should be listening to here, and it’s notable that he doesn’t include timelines as short as four weeks as anything realistic. In fact, we have no details yet, but there’s a good chance that Bryant will have his surgery done by Dr. Anderson in the next few days.
Who are we to believe? I can’t tell you why everyone in Dallas is so optimistic. Perhaps they have detailed information that leads them to be confident in this being only a four week injury. But without sharing that info, I have no reason to believe them. I don’t love always being the skeptical one in the room, but I feel like until a player can prove historical comps wrong, I’ll stick with history. In the case of a fifth metatarsal fracture, that history is telling me that a ballpark of, “8-12 weeks,” is probably the more likely outcome here. In my opinion, 4 weeks is entirely out of the question, and 6 weeks is probably still a little delusional. With a return being so far down the road, it’s safe to wonder if the Cowboys would consider using their IR/DFR tag for Bryant. Or maybe just plain-old IR. But the way they’re spinning this, that seems unlikely.
