I can think of two people who might be at least a little irritated with Tampa Bay defensive lineman Da’Quan Bowers right now. But before we get to that, I should give you a quick rundown on Bowers himself. Before coming to the NFL in 2011, Da’Quan Bowers was one hell of a player. As a junior at Clemson, he was a unanimous All-American as well as the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. Some draft analysts even had him as the first pick of the 2011 NFL draft. Then his stock was torpedoed by a murky knee injury. We know for a fact that Bowers had surgery on his left knee sometime in January of 2011. What is still unclear is exactly what that surgery was. Most likely, it was microfracture surgery, which, despite that innocent sounding “micro” part, is about as severe as knee surgery can be. Microfracture surgery basically involves intentionally creating miniscule fractures within the knee in the hope that your body will respond by creating new cartilage in order to heal itself. I can’t fully explain why, but it makes me a little queasy to read about. Microfracture surgery is far from an easy fix, and there’s a long list of players who have not returned to form afterwards, especially in the NBA. Bowers’ agent originally disputed that the surgery was indeed microfracture related, but later confirmed it, although he still tried to downplay it as basically microfracture-lite. (Hint, there is no such thing as microfracture-lite.)
Of course, this medical history scared the crap out of a lot of NFL teams. And it should. Teams reasonably expect to get at least one healthy rookie contract (four years) out of a player that they draft. In the case of Bowers, there were plenty of rumors that he would never stay healthy enough to finish that rookie contract. Despite a lot of analysts who dismissed these rumors as typical draft fear mongering, Da’Quan Bowers slid down and was picked up by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second round with the 51st overall pick of the 2011 draft.
Bowers has not left a great impression on the NFL thus far. He got off to a slow start in 2011, but looked decent toward the end of the season. He missed the first seven games of the 2012 season while recovering from an offseason Achilles tendon tear. By 2013, he looked out of shape, and had fallen down the depth chart. He ended the 2013 season on injured reserve with a knee injury, and it’s been reported that he has already had or will have more surgery on the same troublesome knee. In fairness, some people have reported that this most recent surgery is unrelated to his older microfracture procedure, but we just don’t have clear details there.
But why would this history matter now? Here’s where I entirely speculate and where I openly admit that I am entirely speculating.
There are two players in this year’s NFL draft that bear some resemblance to Da’Quan Bowers. Whether or not it is fair, the potential risk-versus-reward equation of those two players might be viewed differently because of the troubles that Bowers has had. Every team passed on Bowers at least once in the 2011 draft. With the most recent story that Bowers needs more knee surgery coming out right before this 2014 draft, every scout and personnel man in the NFL is probably smugly patting himself on the back and thinking about how smart they were to pass on Bowers, a player originally thought to be a clear first round talent. Well, not the scouts and personnel men in Tampa Bay, but everyone else for sure. I suspect that talent evaluators live in fear over being the one who picked a draft bust. Furthermore, I suspect that this downside risk of a bust is disproportionate to the upside reward of making a great pick that works out. For example, nobody really credits the Patriots staff with taking Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 draft. Those diamonds in the rough are usually seen as lucky flukes. But everyone (myself included) loves to make fun of the Raiders for taking JaMarcus Russell with the first pick of the 2007 draft. Like many decisions in life, I suspect people are more interested in minimizing the chances of looking like a fool in front of everyone than they are in taking a calculated gamble. With that in mind, I could see NFL executives shying away from any pick that even slightly resembles Da’Quan Bowers this year.
The most striking resemblance to Bowers this year is Alabama left tackle Cyrus Kouandjio. Back in 2011, Kouandjio tore his ACL and MCL in his left knee, but subsequently came back to become a consensus All-American and a standout athlete in the tough SEC. Aside from his ACL recovery, Kouandjio missed zero games and had no follow-up surgeries. The esteemed Dr James Andrews did not have anything to do with his knee surgery, but has worked with Kouandjio since, and has very vocally defended the health of Kouandjio’s knee. Andrews is as big as they come in sports medicine, and his opinion should mean a lot. Despite all that though, there have still been plenty of people that are concerned that Kouandjio might never make it past a rookie contract due to his knee. Even those who seem to be defending Kouandjio don’t always help his case, such as this quote from Alabama team trainer Jeff Allen:
“There’s no question, with his knee, that is something that’s going to have to be paid attention and dealt with, with the understanding at times it may limit him,” Allen said. “At times, I’m talking about down the road, 5-6 years down the road, not this year.”
Does that sound like a ringing endorsement to you? It certainly won’t to all the NFL talent evaluators that have to put a grade on Kouandjio. It’s important to note that Kouandjio’s knee injury is not at all like Bowers’ microfracture surgery. My reason for comparing the two is based more on people’s long term health concerns and durability expectations. Right now, most writers and mock-draft enthusiasts seem to have Kouandjio coming off the board in the first round, although there isn’t much agreement where within that round.
On a personal note, I have now typed “Kouandjio,” about a dozen times, and I had to deliberately stop and sound it out each and every time. He’s now right up there with Patriots TE Michael Hoomanawanui on my list of, “players whose names I will avoid saying out loud in conversation with people who actually know how to say those names and will make fun of me.”
Notre Dame defensive lineman Louis Nix is another player in this year’s draft that might be affected by the sheer bustitude (yes, that’s a word now) of Da’Qwan Bowers. As with Kouandjio, Nix did not have microfracture surgery, and I want to be careful to make that clear. Louis Nix injured his meniscus in 2013, and had surgery to repair it. In the most basic sense, the meniscus is the structure of cartilage in the knee that cushions everything correctly. If you’re a car person, imagine it as your knee bushing and you’d be pretty close. The surgery itself is fairly routine, and tons of NFL players have had it. Trouble is… how can I put this politely… Nix is, let’s just say, “athletically fat.” It actually hurts me to say that, as he’s a truly loveable character. Read this piece from ESPN and try not to fall in love with him just a little. He calls himself, “Irish Chocolate,” for crying out loud! But, no matter how much I might love the guy, he’s currently listed at 331 lbs, and that’s down from his high of about 350. In general, knees only get worse with time. That cartilage wears down with age and use. It shouldn’t come as a real shocker to hear that carrying 331 lbs around isn’t great for your knees, and that it will probably catch up with you over time. To some NFL evaluators, the cracks might have appeared in the façade with that first meniscus injury, and they might see plenty of risk moving forward. In an odd twist, the very weight that increases Nix’s injury risk also increases his upside potential. There are simply not that many college players with that enormous size. Nix is either the best pure nose tackle in this year’s draft, or the only pure nose tackle in this year’s draft, depending on who you listen to. The draft projections I’ve seen for Nix are pretty scattered. I’ve seen some as early as the tenth overall pick, and some as late or as vague as, “within the first 50 picks.”
When discussing any of these draft health stories, I need to point out that there is tons of ridiculous and unethical team jockeying, misinformation, and propaganda. Less-than-honest teams have been known to leak false stories about a prospect’s health with the hope that that player will then fall far enough in the draft that this lying team will be able to pick them up. Conversely, players and agents are known to leak false stories meant to minimize legitimate health concerns. Some writers thought that malicious misinformation might’ve been in play in the draft buildup for Bowers in 2011. I have no read on whether all the injury concerns for Kouandjio or Nix are entirely legitimate or not. This is all impossible to really pin down, but I do feel like I need to mention it.
I have no idea where either Kouandjio or Nix will be drafted, but I can imagine a scenario where some weary team executives pass on each at least once. While these evaluators might not know or admit to it, I suspect that the worst case scenario examples like that of Da’Quan Bowers play a part in that decision making. This might be especially true in cases like this where Bowers’ latest knee setback is fresh in the minds of talent evaluators who are pleased that they didn’t take that risk back in 2011. There are plenty of college players who had injury concerns similar to Kouandjio or Nix that went on to have great NFL careers, so I’m not saying that the deck is stacked against them. I’m just saying that everyone tends to remember the busts more than they remember the ones that ended up working, and that might work against those two in a few days.
This year’s NFL draft is May 8th – May 10th. If Da’Quan Bowers wakes up on the morning of May 11th to a flaming bag of dog poop on his doorstep, I can think of two likely suspects. Hopefully Bowers will use his good knee to stomp it out.
Update: May 12th, 2014. Cyrus Kouandjio was taken by the Buffalo Bills in the second round (44th overall pick). Louis Nix was taken by the Houston Texans in the third round (83rd overall pick). It looks like a lot of teams might’ve been hesitant because of their injury histories, as both players were picked significantly later than any of the draft experts had predicted.
