With the NFL draft quickly approaching, we’re now starting to see all the usual reports, speculations, and shenanigans that we see every spring. Shenanigans, you ask? Oh yes, shenanigans, I say. The worst of these is typically when someone tries to raise illegitimate red flags about a draft prospect, presumably so that the player’s draft stock will plummet and he can be picked up for pennies on the dollar. We see these false red flags with things like character and leadership ability, but I love to focus on the ones surrounding medical and injury history. It would appear that there is a ridiculously irresponsible batch of shenanigans (they do come in batches, right?) right now surrounding Boise State RB Jay Ajayi.
Ajayi does indeed have some injury risks. Trouble is, those risks are pretty old. Ajayi tore his ACL in 2011. Yes, 2011. It was a bad tear, and some reports even use the dreaded term, “shredded,” which can often mean extensive damage to other structures in the knee besides just the ACL. I have also seen some reports that Ajayi had complications such as swelling in the surgically-repaired knee during the 2012 season, though I can’t seem to find legitimate sources to quote on that so we might want to dismiss this. Ajayi went on to play very productive 2013 and 2014 seasons without any knee problems. Ajayi had precisely zero problems passing all the NFL combine medical checks. Yet, despite all this, his stock is rumored to be plunging over long term durability concerns about his knee. Mike Florio at ProFootballTalk has the best breakdown on how ridiculous this all is, and you can read that here.
As a point of comparison, we should measure Jay Ajayi to Georgia RB Todd Gurley. Everyone seems to love Gurley (again, outlined by Florio in a different piece). Draftniks simply can’t get enough Gurley. Some people think he might be in the top 10 overall picks this year. But here’s where it gets nuts… Gurley tore his ACL last season. I wrote about Gurley’s case a few weeks ago. I don’t want to knock Todd Gurley. He’s had the care of Dr. James Andrews, the absolute best of all knee doctors. It appears that Gurley has responded very well to his surgery and rehab. That’s all cool. But why is Ajayi, who has put three post-surgery seasons on tape, viewed as a much bigger risk than Gurley?
In fairness, there is of course some reason to be concerned about Jay Ajayi. If he did have extensive damage to his knee back in 2011, then yes, there might be legitimate concern about how many miles he has left on him. If there was cartilage damage, that might certainly sap a few years off his career. But, even if he did have additional damage (which we cannot confirm) that should’ve been an existing concern for NFL teams. No team should’ve waited until this point, one week before the draft, to realize that there might be some risk in Jay Ajayi. It’s not the longevity concern that bothers me here, it’s how that concern seems to have just now popped up. The timing of this concern is suspicious, and indicates that it’s most likely just some irresponsible slander being leaked out to torpedo Ajayi’s value. I’ll be curious to see when Ajayi comes off the board, especially in comparison to Gurley.
