I get this one a lot. Being a believer in the almighty power of a statistical database, I’m often accused of not seeing the larger picture. When I take to Twitter to rant about better injury estimates based on this historical comparison, I get criticism like this:
@CraigZumsteg @Jeff_McLane @TheRealDGunnCSN you're annoying with this on every report. All injuries are differe t
— David kinateder (@DavidKinateder) November 3, 2014
I can’t really defend myself on that first part… I can be annoying. And I walk a pretty fine line between Twitter participation and Twitter spamming, so yeah, there’s that. But I’d like to take a closer look at that second part, the one about how all injuries are different.
My short answer on this would be, “yes and no.” Yes, all injuries are absolutely different. While two players might both have collarbone fractures, those fractures are often in different locations. Different levels of stress and mechanics caused those two injuries, so the extent of the injury is usually different as well. Different players heal and respond to treatment in different ways. And just to make it all the more murky, we never have access to the medical records that would clear up at least some of this haziness. These are all things I admit to, and I even outlined them here, so I’m not trying to hide behind my database.
But, even given all those flaws, I would still argue that my injury database is a very valid starting point for reasonable return-to-play estimates. Let’s use the very topical Nick Foles collarbone fracture as an example. I’ve written already about it here and here, so it’s on my mind these days… plus it was the one that got me called out in that above Tweet. In my corner, I have examples of two recent quarterbacks who suffered fractures to their left, non-throwing, collarbone. One returned after missing seven weeks. The other was close to returning around eight weeks, then suffered a setback and ended up missing the ten games before the season was over. You could view this as one example of a seven week rehab and one example of an eight week rehab. You could also view this as one example of a seven week rehab and one example of a season-ending injury. I’m fine with either view as long as it’s explained. Yes, I admit this is a dangerously small sample size.
With those two examples in mind, something rings false about any estimate that includes four weeks as a possibility. Yes, I guess that’s physically and medically possible, but it is not something we’ve seen from a quarterback (the throwing mechanics of a quarterback are still affected by injuries to the non-throwing arm, and the throwing motion will put stress on the non-throwing collarbone). In order for me to believe that a four-week return is possible for Foles, I would like to understand the specifics of his injury. Why is Foles injury half as crippling as the ones Aaron Rodgers or Tony Romo suffered? It is entirely possible that Foles has a smaller fracture. Or that his fracture is at a location more likely to heal quickly. Or some combo of the two. But, without those specific details, I think that a historical comparison approach is the best tool we have available.
Yes, every injury is different. But no, that doesn’t mean that a historical comparison, especially in the absence of specific medical information, is worthless.
